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The 2020 campaign promises to be the strangest election of our lifetimes. On one hand, the polls show the incumbent President Trump trailing former Vice President Biden by a margin of roughly 7.5% according to the Real Clear Politics average. Nate Silver’s 538 has Biden as a 75%-25% favorite over Trump, JHK Forecasts has Biden … Continue reading Energetic Trump v. Hiden Biden

There is considerable debate over the election safety of mail-in ballots. But a less focused on element of mail-in ballots are the high number of ballots that get thrown out. Greenwich Connecticut’s Registrar of Voters, Fred DeCarlo, recently posted some data from Connecticut’s recent Presidential primary. Connecticut’s Democratic Governor sent an absentee ballot request to … Continue reading Greenwich CT: 5% of Mail-in Ballots Not Counted

Today looked like a more conventional campaign day: both Biden and Trump on the campaign trail for the first time during this election cycle. Biden ventured out to Kenosha, Wisconsin while Trump held a rally at the airport in Latrobe, Pennsylvania. The campaign events could not have been more different. Let’s start with Biden’s Kenosha … Continue reading Dueling Rallies: Biden v. Trump

With polls suggesting that the race has tightened but that Biden retains a single digit lead, we note that Trump has begun to set the agenda and that Biden is playing catch up. Trump has put the violence and riots in the nation’s cities at the forefront of the Presidential agenda. Yesterday, Biden was forced … Continue reading Trump sets the agenda

The Republican National Convention closed with Trump seeking a knock out blow. The RNC is trying to do what many consider impossible: reaching out to the black community while also being the law and order President. The RNC featured a number of very prominent black Americans including HUD Secretary Ben Carson and Alice Johnson, criminal … Continue reading RNC Day 4: Trump Goes Big

With polls showing Trump’s support rising (Rasmussen poll showing Biden with a 1 point lead; Zogby poll showing Trump approval at 52%), the RNC continued its convention with more positive personal stories from many citizens and politicians. From Kellyanne Conway to Karen Pence to Sister Deirdre Byrne, the Trump campaign started the evening by highlighting … Continue reading RNC Day 3: More Optimism

The RNC kicked off Day 2 with an uplifting story about the Hope for Prisoners, a story of redemption and second chances. It is a strong appeal to both Black and evangelical Christian voters. President Trump is making a nuanced outreach to both law enforcement and the minority communities. The RNC also gave a speaking … Continue reading RNC Day 2: More Uplifting Messages

After the DNC convention adopted an infomercial style format, it was refreshing to have a real live convention taking place in Charlotte at the RNC. Sure, there was some taped infomericals and plenty of social distancing, but the contrast with the DNC’s infomercial was notable. The RNC’s theme was America, Land of Promise and they … Continue reading RNC Day 1: It’s a real convention

Well, we’ve made it through four nights of the DNC Convention. So far viewership has been low, considerably below 2016. After three lackluster nights, we found Day 4 to be somewhat better. At least, the Democrats focused on the core voters they need to win, with well planned videos featuring veterans, a fire fighter, and … Continue reading Day 4 DNC – It’s Finally Over!

The US Senate is shaping up to be a truly wide open event that could easily go either way in November. One of our favorite forecasters, JHK Forecasts, currently gives Democrats a 61% chance of winning the Senate and Republcans a 39% chance, but the single most likely outcome is 50-50 with the VP (most … Continue reading Close senate races will impact public policy