Election to Watch: New Haven, CT

As we head to election day next Tuesday, we highlight another interesting mayoral race in Connecticut. New Haven has long been a Democratic bastion of support. In 2017, incumbent mayor Toni Harp easily won re-election with 78% of the vote over the Independent Democrat (14%) and the Working Family (8%) candidates. The Republicans did not even field a candidate!

This year the political drama in New Haven has taken a surprising turn. Toni Harp, a 72 year old black female and the three term Democratic mayor, received the Democratic endorsement. However, Alderman Justin Elicker, a 44 year old white candidate, challenged Harp forcing a primary. Elicker stunned the political establishment winning the primary with 58% of the vote, although turnout was very low. At first, Harp indicated that she would not run in the general election, but after a few days, Harp reconsidered and was able to get the backing of the union-backed Working Family Party. With Republicans not fielding a candidate, there will be three candidates on the ballot: Harp, Elicker and a write in candidate.

Politically, it is difficult to know how different Harp and Elicker would be in office. Elicker seemed to benefit from a recent property tax increase in New Haven and the announcement of a FBI investigation into corruption in New Haven’s government. At same time, Harp has pushed back suggesting that Elicker’s wife (a New Haven prosecutor) was behind the FBI investigation. There are also whispers from Harp’s campaign that Elicker is more conservative.

The bottom line is that the Democratic Party in New Haven is not unified. In fact, there seems to be growing animosity between Elicker and Harp. We believe that this is actually a toss-up between the two. Indeed, Harp has the union backing, a strong base among black residents in New Haven, and name recognition as the incumbent. Elicker also has a strong Democratic pedigree, seems to be benefiting from voters who want a generational change, and perhaps a more moderate approach to leadership. We will be looking to see how close this race turns out. A close race could signal that the Connecticut Democratic Party is splintered between more moderates and more progressive candidates. A major split in the Democratic Party between moderates and progressives could put the Democratic Party’s hold on Connecticut in play in 2020, particularly if the Party were to select one of the progressives, Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren.