Buttigieg Surges in Iowa

Monmouth University released a poll that shows South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg as the new leader of the Democratic Iowa Caucus with 22%, Biden at 19%, Warren at 18% and Sanders rounding out the top four at 13%. While Buttigieg has been gradually rising in the polls, the Monmouth poll is the first to show him in the lead. The poll also showed that Buttigieg has the highest net favorable rating of any candidates with 73% favorable and only 10% negative. Warren has the second best net favorable rating. Other interesting info from the poll was that Amy Klobuchar is now in fifth place while Mayor Mike Bloomberg, the latest entrant to the race, came in 13th place with less than 1% support. Bloomberg also had the lowest net favorable rating of -31%.

So what explains Buttigieg’s rise in the polls? First, Buttigieg has been spending considerable time in the state and appears to be making a good impression on the local Iowa voters. Second, Buttigieg did well in the most recent debate and appears to be benefiting from missteps by the prior three front-runners, each of whom have had a series of self-inflicted wounds. Third, a growing number of Democrats are concerned that neither Warren or Sanders is electable while Biden has been fatally damaged by the Ukraine scandals involving his son Hunter Biden.

At the same time, we doubt that the Democratic Party will ultimately nominate Buttigieg as its candidate. Buttigieg is somewhat of a novice: he is 37 years old and has been a mayor of a city of 100,000 people for 8 years. The problem is that Buttigieg’s record as mayor contains some real weaknesses. Most notably, he has had an adversarial relationship with civil rights leaders in South Bend. Buttigieg is particularly unpopular with blacks, having fired the city’s black police chief. Buttigieg does not poll well with minority voters, a key demographic for Democrats.

We finish by highlighting how fluid the Democratic race remains. Only 28% of respondents indicated that they have made up their minds with respect to who they will support. Thus, while Buttigieg has jumped in front for now, a lot is likely to change from now until February 3rd when Iowans head to the caucus. Somehow, we don’t think the Democratic Party is going to nominate such an untested candidate.