Is Buttigieg Electable?

Another poll out of Iowa, this time the well respected Des Moines Register / CNN poll, confirms that Buttigieg has jumped to the front of the Iowa Democratic Presidential field. The DM/CNN Poll shows Buttigieg in front with 25%, followed by Warren (16%), Biden (15%) and Sanders (15%). Buttigieg’s surge has also been picked up by the betting markets where Predict It now has Buttigieg in third place with 20% likelihood of winning the nomination, trailing only Warren (25%) and Biden (23%) while ahead of Sanders (14%).

While all of this news is undoubtedly good news for Buttigieg, we believe that Democrats will start focusing on general election polls that (at least for now) show Buttigieg as the least electable candidate of the top four. FoxNews is out with a series of battleground state polls … this time North Carolina (which Trump carried in 2016) and Nevada (which Clinton carried in 2016). The polling numbers do not look good for Buttigieg. In North Carolina, Biden leads Trump by +2, Sanders leads Trump by +1, Warren trails Trump by -1, and Buttigieg? He trails Trump by -4. The same pattern emerges in Nevada. Biden and Sanders are up by +7 over Trump, Warren leads by +4%, while Buttigieg is in a dead heat with Trump in Nevada. In short, in both states Buttigieg is the least electable candidate of the top 4 candidates.

Why is Buttigieg trailing the other leading Democratic candidates? A constructive explanation would be that he is less well known and, if he were better known, might fare better. A more problematic explanation would be that Buttigieg does not poll well with Black voters and non-college educated whites. There is probably some truth in both explanations, but we remain unconvinced that the Buttigieg will get the Democratic nod. The last thing the Democrats need to run is an inexperienced candidate with tepid support from the Black community.

So who will the Democrats nominate? We believe that Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden remain the favorites. The recent entrants — Mike Bloomberg and Deval Patrick — are good media stories, but we doubt that either gains traction despite some unique attributes (in Bloomberg’s case, his unique ability to self fund; and for Patrick, his potential support within the black community). The Democrat establishment is clearly concerned about the electability of Warren and Sanders in a general election against Trump. We seriously doubt that they will, therefore, suddenly back a candidate whose general election prospects are even worse. As long as the polls in swing states show that Buttigieg is likely to underperform other Democrats, we seriously doubt that Buttigieg will be the nominee.