The meaning of Louisiana and Kentucky

Tonight we are watching another close gubernatorial election, this time in Louisiana. At this point, it seems a pretty good bet that the incumbent Democratic governor, John bel Edwards, is going to prevail over his Republican challenger Eddie Rispone by a slim margin, while for the Attorney General race, the Republican is winning by a wide margin. So what does it mean?

First, it does not mean that President Trump need worry about winning either state in the general election. Trump is going to win both states resoundingly in 2020.

Second, neither result is indicative a structural shift. John bel Edwards was the incumbent Governor in Louisiana, just as in Kentucky, Democrats have controlled the Governor’s position for most of the past twenty years.

Third, both Republicans and Democrats can win in a “blue” or “red” state when they run candidates that are tailored to the specific state. Both Edwards and Beshear are centrist candidates that appeal to independent voters in each state. Republicans like current Governor Chalie Baker can win in Massachusetts or Governor Phil Scott can win in Vermont, just as Edwards can win in Louisiana. Voters have had no qualms about splitting their votes to select the best individual candidate for each role. That is a good sign, not a problem.

Fourth, every vote matters. In Kentucky, the gubernatorial election was decided by less than 5,136 votes out of almost 1.5 million votes cast with the libertarian candidate claiming more than 28,000 votes. Likewise, in Louisiana, the winning margin is likely to be only about 20,000 out of nearly 1.5 million votes cast. Over the past four years, we have seen an amazing number of very close elections. If we look at local elections, we see even more interesting results. For example, in Greenwich, CT, the local RTM election for District 7 resulted in a tie vote between two candidates! Bottom line: your vote matters and is a great responsibility for every American citizen.

Fifth, the Democrats winning in Kentucky and Louisiana bear little resemblance to national Democrats vying for the party’s presidential nomination. In Louisiana, for example, bel Edwards is pro-life and signed a bill prohibiting all abortions in Louisiana after the heartbeat is detected (ie. approximately after six weeks). While national Democrats celebrate tonight, the real lesson is that the candidates and the positions they take matter to the outcome. If Democrats nominate a candidate like Edwards or Beshear, they will have a good chance to win next year. On the other hand, if they lead with a Warren, Sanders, or Buttigieg, their chance of winning will be diminished significantly and will give Trump, a President whose appeal is quite consistently in the low to mid 40% range, a narrow path to win re-election.