Demographics lag for New England

The Census Bureau released its annual report on demographics and population trends for the country at the end of 2019. The report highlights several interesting trends, including a slowing birth rate for the country, starkly different regional growth rates, and the impact of immigration and intra-state migration. Let’s start with the basics. The U.S. population grew by 6% over the decade from 308 million to 328 million people. The South grew by nearly 10%, the West by 9%, the Mid-West by 2%, and the Northeast by only 1%.

The results for New England states suggest very sluggish population growth and, in some instances, outright population decline. Massachusetts, led by Boston, fared the best with an increase of 5.3% over the decade, followed by New Hampshire at 3.3%, Maine at 1.2%, Rhode Island at 0.6%, Connecticut at -0.2%, and Vermont at -0.3%. Vermont and Connecticut ranked 47th and 48th nationally, coming in only slightly better than West Virginia (49th) and Illinois (50th). Connecticut lost 8,860 people while Vermont’s population fell by 1,748 people.

The results highlight the challenge that high tax states such as Illinois, New York, Vermont and Connecticut face relative to lower tax states such as Texas, Florida and Tennessee. People and businesses are voting with their feet. Even California, long viewed as a beacon given its attractive climate, has seen negative intra-state migration and could be at risk of losing a house seat for the first time in its history. Perhaps one of the most interesting comparisons are states that are adjacent to one another. For example, New Hampshire (a state with no income tax) saw positive growth of 3% while its high tax neighbor Vermont saw a decline of -0.3%.

Post the 2020 Census, the nation’s electoral votes and representation in the House of Representatives will be reapportioned. According to projections by the Election Data Services, Rhode Island is likely to lose one of its two seats in the House. Vermont already only has a single representative while Maine and Connecticut are projected to hang on to their existing seats (Connecticut used to have six seats but lost a seat earlier this century). Neither New Hampshire nor Massachusetts will have sufficient growth to gain a seat. Nationally, it is projected that Texas will gain +3, Florida +2, and Oregon, North Carolina, Arizona, Montana, and Colorado will each gain +1. On the losing side, New York is likely to lose 2 seats while Illinois, Alabama, Rhode Island, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia and either California or Minnesota will lose a single seat.

The bottom line for New England is that our influence on the national political scene is shrinking. None of the New England states saw population growth above the national average while two states (Connecticut, Vermont) saw outright decline and two others (Maine and Rhode Island) were barely positive. If current trends continue, Rhode Island will lose a seat in the House in 2020 while Connecticut and Maine are likely to see further declines in the future. To reverse the trend, New England states will have to adopt more tax friendly policies that drive faster economic growth.