From the campaign trail …

With less than a month to the Iowa Caucuses, the political news is starting to come fast and furious. Today, we highlight five interesting developments:

First, the latest polls out of Iowa show a very contested electorate with no candidate pulling away. Indeed, the CBS News / You Gov poll has a three way tie at 23% among Sanders, Buttigieg and Biden with Elizabeth Warren close behind at 16%. The caucus voting remains fluid with many voters not yet certain of who they will vote for.

Second, former candidate and Obama HUD Secretary Julian Castro endorsed Senator Warren, becoming one of the most high profile endorsements yet. We think it was a very timely endorsement for Warren who has been struggling to keep up with the top 3 candidates in Iowa. Castro may have his eye on a potential VP selection should Warren end up as the nominee and could provide outreach to the hispanic community.

Third, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez went after Joe Biden saying that “In any other country, Joe Biden and I would not be in the same party, but in America, we are.” Cortez continued on twitter saying “Many other countries have multiparty democracies, where several parties come together in a coalition to govern. In another country, I’d be in a Labor Party like Jacinda Ardern. Our primary field would cover 2-3 parties.” Should a less progressive candidate win the Democratic nomination, it is not clear that the Sanders – Cortez wing would actually support the candidate.

Fourth, former Republican Senator Lincoln Chafee (Rhode Island) announced that he will seek the Libertarian nomination for President. Chafee ran unsuccessfully for the Democratic nomination for President in 2016, and now is seeking to win over libertarians. Chafee is touting his vote in the Senate against the Iraq War (he was the only Republican to vote against the war) and fiscal conservatism. Chafee admits that many libertarian voters may not agree with all of his past votes, but hopes to nevertheless win over enough libertarians to win the nomination. We think that a Chafee libertarian candidacy would be a slight negative for President Trump.

Fifth, California’s Secretary of State is scrambling to explain the voting rules for the March 3 Democratic and Republican primaries. Recall that California moved its primary up to Super Tuesday and for the first time in years, the California primary will play a critical role in the selection process. Approximately 26% of the California electorate are registered independents. In California, Independents can vote in the Democratic and Libertarian primaries, but not the Republican primary. It is widely thought that a high percentage of Independents will vote for Bernie Sanders, but it is also possible that they could turn out for Mayor Bloomberg.

The countdown has begun … so stay tune to our daily updates as we head to the first official contest of the campaign!