Turnout in Iowa and New Hampshire

Most of the attention on Feb 3 will be on who wins the Democratic Iowa Caucus, but we will also be looking closely at the turnout at the caucuses. Unlike a primary, participants in the Iowa Caucus must show up at 7 pm and stay for over an hour to be counted. Participating in a caucus requires a considerable degree of commitment and typically only attracts about 10-15% of the electorate.

Interestingly, the relative turnout of the caucuses seems to be a good harbinger of who is likely to win the Fall general election. In 2008, with no incumbent running, 236,000 voters turned out for the Democratic Caucus between Obama and Clinton. Eight years later, only 171,000 turned out for Clinton v Sanders. In contrast, on the Republican side, turnout was only 121,000 back in 2016 and 119,000 in 2008. The Republican turnout jumped to a record setting 186,000 participants. 2016 had greater Republican turnout in the caucus and fewer on the Democratic side.

The same trends were also noticeable in New Hampshire. On the Democratic side, turnout dropped from 287,000 in 2008 to 253,000 in 2016. Whereas on the Republican side, we saw a. significant increase from 235,000 in 2008 to 285,000 in 2016 in New Hampshire. The primary and caucus results, thus, highlight that the party seeing greater increase in caucus or primary participation historically has won in the November general election.

Therefore, at the Iowa Caucus, we can look at turnout as a means of forecasting the November general election: (i) if turnout on the Democratic side is above 200,000, that will be a good sign. Above 230,000 and it is very favorable. Below 175,000 and it is negative for the Democrats. (ii) on the Republican side, we will compare the turnout to the 2012 turnout for Obama when he ran with no opposition. Below 30,000 and it is a relatively weak turnout. Above 30,000 and it is fairly favorable for Trump’s chances in November.