South Carolina provided a decisive victory for Joe Biden. Favored to win, Joe Biden easily surpassed expectations winning 48.4% of the vote and winning decisively over Bernie Sanders who won 19.9% of the vote. Biden picked up 39 delegates to Sanders 15, leaving Sanders with a 60 to 54 lead over Biden in delegates won so far. Biden’s victory was due in large part to overwhelming support among black and older voters who seem to have coalesced around Biden as the establishment choice to defeat Sanders. Much credit for the win is due to Representative Jim Clyburn who rallied the black establishment to Biden on the eve of the election. We also believe that Sanders’ ineffective defense of Castro on the eve of the election scared Democrats and made them question his electability. We see several implications:
First, Biden has become the alternative candidate to Sanders. The other non-Bloomberg candidates performed very poorly in South Carolina. Tom Steyer, the billionaire businessman, finished third with 11% and immediately dropped out of the race last night. Buttigieg, Warren, Klobuchar and Gabbard all finished under 10% and demonstrated very low support among black voters. We expect Buttigieg, Klobuchar and Warren to continue on through Super Tuesday, hoping to surprise in a few states. Warren may try to win Massachusetts while Klobuchar can focus on Minnesota to gain delegates and support if the result is a contested convention. However, should they finish well behind as we expect, the pressure to drop out will grow. It is clear to voters that they are not going to be the nominee and that means their support will continue to slip.
Second, Bloomberg is now in a difficult position. He clearly does not want to see Sanders as the nominee, but it is not clear if he is helping or hurting the chances of defeating Sanders by staying in the race. We expect that he will campaign vigorously through Super Tuesday and then assess his chances. A three way race between Sanders, Bloomberg and Biden could result in a brokered convention if Biden and Bloomberg are both relevant. We think Bloomberg could be most relevant by focusing on key states in the Northeast, Florida and West Coast where his appeal is greatest. On the other hand, if his support fades like Steyer’s did at the polls, his presence could merely siphon votes from Biden and make Sanders victory greater in certain states.
Third, the prospect of a Biden v. Sanders battle should worry Democrats. If this occurs, this will be reminiscent of the Clinton v. Sanders campaign, but this time the favorite is the progressive wing of the party. It will not be a unifying experience. Recall what Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez said that she and Joe Biden should not be in the same political party. The battle for the control of the party will force delegates and party officials to take sides. Absent a miraculous unity ticket, this fight will be a long battle for the soul of the Democratic party.
Fourth, we think Sanders will emerge with either a clear plurality or majority of the delegates. Biden certainly has momentum coming out of South Carolina, but he has some huge disadvantages. Let’s start with money. His campaign has anemic fundraising and will need to raise massive funds to run a national campaign in multiple states at the same time. Add to this that currently he has no campaign infrastructure in many critical states such as California and Texas. In California, he only has one campaign office open in California. Additionally, early voting has been going on for sometime. In California, it is estimated that 10 million Democrats will vote in the primary. 40% of those participating have already voted. While that gives Biden a hope to do better among the remaining 60% coming off his big win, it highlights the problem that many votes may have already been cast for candidates like Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Steyer, and Warren, siphoning off potential votes for the non-Sanders candidate. The same thing is true in virtually every other state offering early voting. We believe that this gives Sanders a considerable edge.
Fifth, both Democratic front runners have clear weaknesses. Sanders’ inability to win over black and older voters in South Carolina suggests that in a general election, he might lose many of these voters to Trump. His embrace of Castro also opens him up to all types of claims and the America v. Socialism line of attack has to worry Democrats. On the other hand, Biden is not the energetic, youthful campaigner of hope and change that has led to political success in the past. He is increasingly gaffe prone and out of step with many young voters in the Democratic Party. Turnout of young and hispanic voters will be in doubt in November if Biden leads the ticket.
Attention now will turn to Super Tuesday. We will come out with a more detailed preview of Super Tuesday, but needless to say if Biden wants to stay as the Sanders alternative, he will need to score a few wins on Tuesday. The pace of the race is accelerating and we believe that Democrats should be very concerned about how this nominating process is going if they want to win in November.
NewEnglandPolitics.com 