Tonight the Democratic Establishment is scrambling to stop Bernie Sanders. With key endorsements from Amy Klobuchar, Pete Buttigieg, and Beto O’Rourke, the Establishment is attempting to rally behind Joe Biden. Suddenly, many forecasters are suggesting that it’s a toss-up between Biden and Sanders. Nate Silver’s 538 says Biden and Sanders have an equal chance of winning the Democratic nomination. Predictit now has both Sanders and Biden having at least a 40% chance of getting the nomination. It’s certainly possible that Biden wins the nomination, but we believe that forecasters are overestimating the likelihood of a Biden victory and underestimating the likelihood of a Sanders victory.
Whoever wins a majority or a plurality of the vote tomorrow on Super Tuesday will become the prohibitive favorite for the nomination. We continue to believe that Bernie Sanders has the edge. Tomorrow, we will have a good indication of whether we are correct. Here are the key questions to consider:
First, does Sanders get a majority of the delegates in California? 538 says that Sanders is likely to win 176 out of 415 delegates in California. We believe that Sanders will surpass 200 and could do even better, with a potential to win 250 – 300 delegates. Our confidence is buoyed by the size of the Sanders rallies, the strength of his ground game, and the total lack of the Biden campaign presence in California.
Second, who wins in Texas? 538 claims that Biden is the favorite to win a plurality of the vote and delegates. We believe that Sanders is going to win in Texas. There are over 1 million votes already cast in the Texas Democratic primary. Sanders has been holding rallies in Texas for weeks and we believe that he already has a huge lead in those votes that are already cast which will be challenging for Biden to catch up to.
Third, will Elizabeth Warren win Massachusetts? This is likely a two way race between Warren and Sanders. We believe that Warren will fall short and that Sanders will win Massachusetts. If Warren loses her home state, the pressure for Warren to exit will grow. We believe that this would consolidate progressive support for Sanders.
Fourth, can Biden win many of the Southern states? Biden’s best chances for victories on Super Tuesday will likely be in North Carolina, Virginia and Alabama. He needs to keep some momentum and demonstrate that he can win again. We think Biden is likely to win some of these states, but we don’t think he will win with nearly as big a margin of victory that he saw in South Carolina. We also think that Sanders and Bloomberg will capture a healthy share of the delegates in all the Southern states.
Fifth, what happens in Minnesota now that Klobuchar has endorsed Biden? Our thought is that Sanders is likely to score a clear victory. Polls had shown that Klobuchar was neck and neck with Sanders. Now that Klobuchar has suspended her campaign, the non-Sanders voters will turn to someone else, but it will be too late for Biden in Minnesota where he has not campaigned at all.
Sixth, how well does Mike Bloomberg do? Many forecasters are suggesting that Bloomberg’s vote will fade now that Biden is rising. We are not so sure. We believe that Bloomberg will reach the 15% threshold in a number of states, including several of the larger states. We also believe that Bloomberg is likely to fare reasonably well in Northeastern states later in the primary season if he stays in the race.
To sum it up, we believe that Sanders is likely to win the largest number of delegates tomorrow by a fairly wide margin. We believe he will win in California, Texas, Minnesota. Colorado, and Massachusetts and be a viable candidate in every state. Biden may notch up a few wins in the South, but overall it will be Sanders who wins 600+ delegates. That will be more than enough delegates to make Sanders the clear frontrunner.
NewEnglandPolitics.com 