When you look at all the 2020 projections, Connecticut is always viewed as a Safe Democratic state that has consistently voted for Democrats for almost 20 years. However, we believe that Connecticut may actually be a potential swing state. The first thing to realize is that Connecticut’s economy has been challenged for years, seeing among the worst economic growth in the nation. The state has suffered under a series of Democratic Governors, high taxes and business unfriendly regulations. In 2016, Hillary Clinton won 55% of the vote while Trump won 41%. However, in 2018, the Governor’s race in Connecticut was much closer. The Democratic candidate, Ned Lamont, won 49% of the vote while the Republican Bob Stefanowski won 46%.
So how much better would Trump have to do in 2016 to beat Joe Biden? Well, if Trump were to perform the same as Stefanowski had done in each county with the exception of outperforming in Fairfield and Hartford counties by ~5%, the race would be a virtual tie. We see this as a possibility. In Fairfield County, Trump vastly underperformed in towns like Greenwich and New Canaan. We think that he will considerably improve on this showing in 2020 and is likely to carry both Greenwich and New Canaan as Republican voters come home just as they did for Romney in 2012 and fewer voters defect to the Libertarians. Additionally, the big cities of Bridgeport, New Haven and Hartford are critical for Democrats, but we believe that Trump will outperform among black voters, particularly black men, significantly improving his vote share in all of these cities. In contrast, we think turnout in the cities may drop in 2020 from 2016, hurting Biden’s overall vote count.
We adjusted the percentage by county and determined that if Trump could stay even in Fairfield County and pull within a few % points in Hartford County while running as well as Stefanowski in the rest of the nation, he could win the state by roughly 10,000 votes. It may seem impossible, but when you look at the historical voting patterns, it’s not such a strange scenario. With a large number of independent voters, a dismal economic record under Democrats, a strong Republican resurgence in Fairfield County (note Fred Camillo’s big win in Greenwich in 2019), and stronger black support for Trump in the state’s big cities, Connecticut could be in play in 2020.
NewEnglandPolitics.com 
As a CT resident, I can attest that there are many disgruntled people here. Fairfield County is just tired of the Democrats in Hartford taxing us and getting nothing in return. Biden is also such a weak candidate that he won’t generate much enthusiasm with urban voters (Hartford, New Haven, and Bridgeport) or among liberal suburban voters. So maybe CT is in play. The last time CT voted for a Republican was 1988.
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