When Democratic Representative Jim Himes defeated long-term moderate Republican Congressman Chris Shays in November 2008, he portrayed himself as a moderate, fiscally conservative but socially liberal. 11 years later in the age of Trump, Himes has moved to the left. Himes was one of the first Democrats to call for the impeachment of President Trump. He has also become a regular speaker at local Indivisible Greenwich events. Himes’ voting record highlights the changes. According to Propublica, In 2017-2018, Himes voted with Nancy Pelosi 94% of the time.
What explains Himes’ move to the left? Following the surprisingly close Sanders challenge of Hillary Clinton in 2016, we believe that Himes started to feel that he might be vulnerable to a challenge from the progressive wing of his own party. Since then, Himes has tried to improve his standing with local progressives who had formed the Indivisible movement and then was an early backer of Representative Alexandria Ocasio Cortez’s call to impeach Trump. Himes used the impeachment campaign to bolster his resistance credentials and attempt to erase his moderate image.
Still, the Democratic Party has changed dramatically over the past 10 years and Himes is facing his first Democratic Primary challenger since having been elected in 2008. Former Green Party candidate Bran Merlen has gathered sufficient signatures to primary Himes. Merlen is focused on the opiod epidemic and has vocally called for arresting executives at Purdue Pharma. He also is an admirer of AOC. We think Himes will handily defeat Merlen in the August 11th primary, given his superior name recognition and Democratic establishment, but look for Himes to campaign vigorously.
After winning the August primary, Himes will face a Republican challenger next November. To date, Republicans have not been able to entice a well-known candidate to enter the race. The leading Republican candidates are: Jonathan Riddle (a financial consultant and former Iona football player) and Michael Goldstein (a local physician). That said, we would not be surprised if other candidates were to enter the Republican race to face Himes.
Republicans are facing an uphill battle to unseat Himes, but if they want a chance, they will need to field a strong candidate, hope that Trump runs well at the top of the ticket, and encourage Independents to move away from progressive policies.
NewEnglandPolitics.com 