We believe that the unrest following the death of George Flynn appears to be helping Joe Biden. Political polls continue to show Biden leading, but for the first time, Biden also leads in the betting markets. Two weeks ago, Trump was favored in the betting markets. Now, Biden leads by a margin of 53% to 46% in the betting markets. Why the change? We see several reasons that Biden’s chances of winning are rising.
First, the unrest is creating an atmosphere of chaos and Trump seems unable to quell it. Of course, most of the unrest is taking places in Democratic controlled cities like New York, Minneapolis, Philadelphia, and St. Louis. However, the buck stops with the President and Trump has not been able to eloquently communicate in a way that unifies the nation.
Second, the rise of racial tension seems to be undoing the progress that the Trump campaign had made among the black community. Just two weeks ago, Biden was reeling with his “You ain’t black” comment, but now he has been given a golden chance to change the narrative.
Third, the economy is reeling due to the coronavirus. The spread of further unrest and looting is going to delay any green shoots from the economy.
You add this all up and we believe that net-net, the unrest seems to be helping Biden. We recognize that there are dangers for Biden. He may overplay his hand and will have to carefully voice support for Black Lives Matter supporters while not seeming to glorify violence. That said much of the media is going to help his cause and continue to portray Trump as unstable and the cause of the unrest. Historically, there are times — notably in 1968, where unrest can create a backlash among voters that leads to support for. the “law and order” candidate. We will watch for evidence to see if this backlash starts emerging, but for now we see Biden as the beneficiary and Trump as disadvantaged.
NewEnglandPolitics.com 