Is this 1968? We don’t think so

In 1968 President Nixon won a resounding presidential election defeating Vice President Hubert Humphrey in a convincing 301 – 191 electoral vote victory. The 1968 election was conducted in the aftermath of considerable social unrest, the Vietnam War, rioting at the Democratic convention and the Watts Riots in Los Angeles. 50 years later, the environment seems eerily similar. The death of George Floyd while in the custody of the Minneapolis police has unleashed a nationwide series of protests, some peaceful and some violent. The scenes of widespread looting and burning buildings from New York City to Minneapolis to St. Louis to Los Angeles evoked memories of the Watts riots and the unrest of the 1960s.

The violence of the 1960s shocked America and turned many suburban voters to Richard Nixon, a man who promised law and order and a return to safety and normalcy. Will the 2020 unrest play a similar role and restore support for President Trump? It’s possible, but for now, we don’t think so. The primary difference we see is that Nixon was the challenger, an outsider who could pin the unrest on his opponent. While Humphrey was not the President, he was the Vice President and from the incumbent party. When something goes wrong, it the leader in office who usually pays a political price. Here we see greater risk for Trump than Biden. So far, it appears that suburban voters are turned off by Trump’s style and handling of the coronavirus pandemic, rather than being concerned about the unrest.

We should monitor, however, if the narrative changes over time. Biden will need to be careful not to become anti-police. Several Democratic leaders have started efforts to defund police forces. Most notably, Los Angeles mayor Eric Garcetti pledged to slash the police budget by $150 million (roughly 10% of the budget) and redirect the funds to communities of color. Similarly, in Minnesota, congresswoman Ilhan Omar and several city council members (including Jeremiah Ellison, son of Keith Ellison and prominent Antifa supporter) have been calling for the abolition of the city police force. National Democratic leaders will have to be careful not to let these sentiments become the party platform. In short, Democrats need to find a way to support Black Lives Matter but not give in to the more radical elements pushing for an anti-cop, anti-law abiding approach to governance.

In short, we don’t think that Trump will benefit from the unrest the way that Nixon did, but Biden needs to walk a fine line of supporting the protests but renouncing violence and unrest. Right now, we see Biden as comfortably ahead of Trump, but Trump has proved to be remarkably resilient and was understandably encouraged by the jobs data out today. Thus, while we see Biden with the advantage today, it’s too early to count Trump out.