In 2016 following the release of the Access Hollywood video, Donald Trump was roundly advised to drop out of the election. Speaker Paul Ryan stated to RNC chair Reince Priebus that “This is fatal. How can you get him out of the race?” Priebus would then tell Trump, “Either you will lose in the biggest landslide in history, or you can get out of the race and let someone else run who can win.” Commentators on MSNBC and CNN were equally dismissive saying that the race was “over” and that the only question was how Republicans could salvage a few Senate and congressional races. Two months later, Trump would go on against all odds to defeat Hillary Clinton and carry Republicans to wins in both the House and Senate.
Today, five months before the 2020 election, Trump is once again considered to be on his way to a landslide loss. The Real Clear Politics poll average shows Biden increasing his lead to +8% with some polls showing Biden leading by as much as 14%. Trump’s approval ratings have dipped as well to the low 40% range while his disapproval ratings are nearing 55%. The country’s unemployment has spiked to 13% in the wake of the coronavirus lockdown, the economy is officially in recession, and racial tensions have risen in the wake of the death of George Floyd. Political prognosticators suggest that Biden’s chances of winning are nearly 80% while political markets, which had favored Trump up until a month ago, now have Biden clearly in the lead.
So does he have won more comeback up his sleeve? We think the chances of a Trump comeback are less than 50%, but here’s the strategy that we see for a Trump comeback.
First, Trump needs the economy to show clear signs of roaring back. The most recent jobs report and the stock market recovery at least have given hope that this is a real possibility. Voters still believe that Trump is better on the economy than Biden and Trump will make this a centerpiece of his campaign.
Second, Trump will champion the re-opening of the economy and is relaunching his campaign rallies. He has scheduled the first of his signature campaign rallies for Tulsa, Oklahoma on June 20th. Over 200,000 people have already applied for tickets. The Trump campaign will attempt to create a vigorous image that will contrast with “Sleepy” Joe Biden remaining in his basement. Trump and Republicans will be the party of the re-opening while portraying Democrats as the party of the lockdown. Trump has already signaled that Republicans will hold an in-person convention in Jacksonville, Florida (Aug 24-27) while Democrats are still deciding whether to go ahead with their event in Wisconsin (Aug 17-20) or whether to hold it virtually. We believe that a virtual event would be an unforced error for Democrats.
Third, Trump will champion that he has delivered on his promises, from reducing troops abroad, to building portions of the wall on the Mexican border, to reducing taxes, to taking on China and putting American jobs first, to appointing conservative judges, to moving the American embassy in Israel to Jerusalem.
Fourth, Trump will attempt to define Biden and Democrats as far left radicals. Democrats will need to be careful not to embrace the AOC/Sanders wing of the party. For example, they should avoid aligning themselves with the “Defund the Police” movement or massive tax hikes.
Fifth, Trump will seek to portray Biden as not up to the job. Trump has already branded Biden as Sleepy Joe, suggesting that he is too old and frail to be President. Biden has provided ample ammunition for this charge with his repeated gaffes and misstatements. The presidential debates will be crucial here. Biden will have to withstand several 1:1 debates with Trump and avoid the painful gaffes that have plagued his events so far. More importantly, he will have to put aside concerns that he is too old and frail for the job.
Finally, Trump will seek to make in roads with black and minority voters. Prior to Covid-19 and the recent protests, Trump had sensed an opening given the strong economy for black voters, Trump’s success with prison reform, and support for historically black colleges.
Will it all be enough? We don’t think so but we would not be surprised if the race tightens a bit as we head to November. If national polls have Biden up by more than 6% heading into election day, we think it will be pretty clear that Biden is going to win. If polls are between 3-6%, a Biden win will be probable and if they are between 1-3% we see it as a jump ball. If the polls have the race either tied or leaning to Trump, we think Trump will win re-election. For now, we put the odds of a Biden win at between 2/3 or 3/4.
NewEnglandPolitics.com 