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In 2016, it appeared that Hillary Clinton was well on her way to defeating Donald Trump. On June 28, 2016 exactly 4 years ago, Clinton led Trump by 5.6% in the Real Clear Politics average of polls. Today, Biden leads Trump by 9.2% according to Real Clear Politics, a considerably wider margin. As we look … Continue reading 2020 v. 2016

Earlier this week, UVA’s Center of Politics led by Larry Sabato posted an article that suggested that “a regression analysis of the 2016 results does not show rallies having a significant impact on that election’s results.” The article had a fascinating chart that showed how many rallies Trump and Clinton had held in certain states … Continue reading Will Campaign Rallies Give Trump an Edge?

Voters headed to the polls in New York, Kentucky and South Carolina, putting aside their fears of COVID-19 to exercise their constitutional right to vote. Here are some of the more interesting results: Kentucky Presidential Primary – no surprise here, but both Biden and Trump won the KY Presidential primaries. However, Trump’s results seem much … Continue reading June 23 Election Results

It’s been weeks since Trump had any positive news out of polling, but suddenly in the past week, several state polls suggest that Trump may have a better chance in key battleground states than previously thought. Let’s start first with North Carolina. This week the pollster Gravis released a poll of 631 registered voters which … Continue reading Interesting State Polls

There are a number of interesting Democratic Senate primaries to watch. Tonight, we highlight three: Massachusetts, Kentucky and Colorado. In Massachusetts, the incumbent Democratic Senator Ed Markey is facing a rare primary challenge from a congressman from his own party. Representative Joe Kennedy, aged 39 years old and grandson of Robert Kennedy, announced that he … Continue reading Senate Dem Primaries to Watch

In 2016 following the release of the Access Hollywood video, Donald Trump was roundly advised to drop out of the election. Speaker Paul Ryan stated to RNC chair Reince Priebus that “This is fatal. How can you get him out of the race?” Priebus would then tell Trump, “Either you will lose in the biggest … Continue reading Art of the comeback?

In 1968 President Nixon won a resounding presidential election defeating Vice President Hubert Humphrey in a convincing 301 – 191 electoral vote victory. The 1968 election was conducted in the aftermath of considerable social unrest, the Vietnam War, rioting at the Democratic convention and the Watts Riots in Los Angeles. 50 years later, the environment … Continue reading Is this 1968? We don’t think so

We believe that the unrest following the death of George Flynn appears to be helping Joe Biden. Political polls continue to show Biden leading, but for the first time, Biden also leads in the betting markets. Two weeks ago, Trump was favored in the betting markets. Now, Biden leads by a margin of 53% to … Continue reading Biden Gains as Unrest Spreads

The 2020 campaign continues to be quite unpredictable. We think it’s too early to make any confident projections for November given the pace of change and developments. Here are a few key developments. The death of George Floyd after being subdued by police for a non-violent crime and the ensuing riots in Minneapolis has ended … Continue reading Latest from campaign 2020

If you look at most political forecasters, former Vice President Joe Biden is poised to defeat President Trump by a comfortable margin. Typical of the emerging consensus among forecasters is JHKforecasts which gives Biden a 66% chance of winning and currently has Biden winning a variety of Trump states including Florida, North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin, … Continue reading What states can Biden and Trump flip in 2020?